Tag: uhamka

THE IMPACTS OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS ON HUMAN
DEVELOPMENT: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

Muchdie, Muchdie

The research reported in this paper aimed to analyse the impacts of technological progress on
human development, directly and indirectly, using Indonesian data 2004-2013. This period of
investigation coincided with the two periods of Yudhoyono adminstration. Technological
progress was mesured by Total Factor Productivity growth (%), Economic growth was
measured by GDP growth (%), Poverty reduction was measured by percentage of poor people
(%), and Human development was measured by human development index. Except data on
total factor productivity growth, all data were collected from National Statistic Agency.A
path model analysis was empolyed to examine direct and indirect impacts. There were four
paths (Path-1 to Path-4) to be analysed. Four hypothesis had been tested.The results showed
that the impact of technological progress on human development varied depend on the path.
Firstly, on Path-1, technological progress had direct negative impact on human development.
This direct impact was statistically significant. Secondly, on Path-2,technological progress
indirectly had negative impact on human development, through poverty reduction. This
indirect impact was statistically significant. Thirdly, on Path-3,technological progress had
positive impact on human development, through poverty reduction and economic growth.
This indirect impact was statistically significant. Finally, on Path-4, technological progress
indirectly had positive impact on human development, through economic development.

The research reported in this paper aimed to analyse the impacts of technological progress on
human development, directly and indirectly, using Indonesian data 2004-2013. This period of
investigation coincided with the two periods of Yudhoyono adminstration. Technological
progress was mesured by Total Factor Productivity growth (%), Economic growth was
measured by GDP growth (%), Poverty reduction was measured by percentage of poor people
(%), and Human development was measured by human development index. Except data on
total factor productivity growth, all data were collected from National Statistic Agency.A
path model analysis was empolyed to examine direct and indirect impacts. There were four
paths (Path-1 to Path-4) to be analysed. Four hypothesis had been tested.The results showed
that the impact of technological progress on human development varied depend on the path.
Firstly, on Path-1, technological progress had direct negative impact on human development.
This direct impact was statistically significant. Secondly, on Path-2,technological progress
indirectly had negative impact on human development, through poverty reduction. This
indirect impact was statistically significant. Thirdly, on Path-3,technological progress had
positive impact on human development, through poverty reduction and economic growth.
This indirect impact was statistically significant. Finally, on Path-4, technological progress
indirectly had positive impact on human development, through economic development.

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KANDUNGAN IMPOR PRODUK-PRODUK PERTANIAN,
PETERNAKAN, KEHUTANAN DAN PERIKANAN

Muchdie, Muchdie

employing input-output model, this paper provides and discusses import components of agricultural, animal husbandry, forestry and fishery sectors in the Indonesian economy. Using the model, it is possible to trace the initial, direct, indirect and consumption induced requirements of imports of these sectors. One can then examine which. sectors have the highest total import components, not just initial or direct import requirements. The result of analysis shows that import components of these sectors are generally low. Only 6 among 26 sectors observed in this study are classified as those that have high import components. It is interesting to note that 3 of those 6 sectors have low initial requirements of import.

employing input-output model, this paper provides and discusses import components of agricultural, animal husbandry, forestry and fishery sectors in the Indonesian economy. Using the model, it is possible to trace the initial, direct, indirect and consumption induced requirements of imports of these sectors. One can then examine which. sectors have the highest total import components, not just initial or direct import requirements. The result of analysis shows that import components of these sectors are generally low. Only 6 among 26 sectors observed in this study are classified as those that have high import components. It is interesting to note that 3 of those 6 sectors have low initial requirements of import.

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THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE ON POVERTY ALLEVIATION IN INDONESIA

Muchdie, Muchdie

This paper examined the impact of technological change on poverty alleviation,
with unemployment rate and economic growth as moderating variables, in
Indonesia during the period of 10 years (2004-2013). This period was coincided
with the two period of Yudhoyono Administration. Technological change was
measured by total factor productivity (TFP) growth, unemployment was
measured by open unemployment rate, economic growth was measured by the
growth of Gross Domestic Product based on the year of 2000 constant price, and
poverty alleviation was measured by the percentage of poor people. Impact
analysis was conducted using SEM-Path Analysis techniques. Most data were
directly gathered from the National Statistics Agency, except data on TFP
growth. The results showed that first, technological change,directly, had a not
significant positive impact on poverty alleviation (Path-1). Second, technological
change, indirectly, had a positive significant impact on poverty alleviation (Path2).

Third, technological change, indirectly, had a positive significant impact on
poverty alleviation (Path-3). Fourth, technological change, indirectly, had
positive significant impact on poverty alleviation (Path-4).

This paper examined the impact of technological change on poverty alleviation,
with unemployment rate and economic growth as moderating variables, in
Indonesia during the period of 10 years (2004-2013). This period was coincided
with the two period of Yudhoyono Administration. Technological change was
measured by total factor productivity (TFP) growth, unemployment was
measured by open unemployment rate, economic growth was measured by the
growth of Gross Domestic Product based on the year of 2000 constant price, and
poverty alleviation was measured by the percentage of poor people. Impact
analysis was conducted using SEM-Path Analysis techniques. Most data were
directly gathered from the National Statistics Agency, except data on TFP
growth. The results showed that first, technological change,directly, had a not
significant positive impact on poverty alleviation (Path-1). Second, technological
change, indirectly, had a positive significant impact on poverty alleviation (Path2).

Third, technological change, indirectly, had a positive significant impact on
poverty alleviation (Path-3). Fourth, technological change, indirectly, had
positive significant impact on poverty alleviation (Path-4).

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ISLAMICITY AND GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS: A CROSS-NATIONS PATH ANALYSIS

Muchdie, Muchdie

This paper analysis the impact, direct and indirect impacts, of
Islamicity on Global competitiveness, with Human development as
moderator variable. Cross-section data on Islamicity index, Human
development index and Global competitiveness index were collected
from 123 countries and employed in a path analysis model. The results
show that Islamicity had a positive and significant direct impact on
global competitiveness. Islamicity had also positive and significant
direct impact on human development. These direct impacts were
statistically significant. Furthermore, human development had a
positive and significant direct impact on the global competitiveness.
Finally, Islamicity had a positive and significant indirect impact on the
global competitiveness, through human development. It is suggested
that Islamic teaching be implemented in daily life in order to maintain
competitiveness globally.

This paper analysis the impact, direct and indirect impacts, of
Islamicity on Global competitiveness, with Human development as
moderator variable. Cross-section data on Islamicity index, Human
development index and Global competitiveness index were collected
from 123 countries and employed in a path analysis model. The results
show that Islamicity had a positive and significant direct impact on
global competitiveness. Islamicity had also positive and significant
direct impact on human development. These direct impacts were
statistically significant. Furthermore, human development had a
positive and significant direct impact on the global competitiveness.
Finally, Islamicity had a positive and significant indirect impact on the
global competitiveness, through human development. It is suggested
that Islamic teaching be implemented in daily life in order to maintain
competitiveness globally.

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THE SPATIAL STRUCTURE OF THE ISLAND ECONOMY OF INDONESIA : AN INTER-REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT STUDY

Muchdie, Muchdie

The research reported in this thesis had two main objectives. The first objective was to assess the relevance, feasibility and practicality of modelling the spatial structure of a developing island economy using a hybrid procedure to generate inter-regional input-output tables. The second objective was to apply the procedure to study the spatial structure of the island economy of Indonesia.

The first objective was achieved in four steps. Step 1: a review of the literature on hybrid techniques for constructing inter-regional input-output tables; Step 2: an examination of the regional characteristics of island economies and assessing their implications for developing a hybrid procedure; Step 3: a review of the current practices for generating of single-region and multi-region input-output tables in Indonesia; Step 4: an assessment of the potential of applying the hybrid technique for constructing interregional input-output tables in Indonesia. As a result a new hybrid procedure for generating inter-regional input-output tables (GIRIOT) for an island economy in a developing country has been developed. This procedure is the most significant contribution of the research.

GIRIOT combines and modifies the GRIT II and GRIT III procedures developed at The University of Queensland. At least three aspects of the new procedure are different to GRIT; the hybrid procedure designed for a mainland economy in a developed country. GRIT uses national technical coefficients. GIRIOT adjusts regional technology differences since in an island country like Indonesia, regional diversity exists in its ecology, economy and culture. GRIT uses LQ (Location Quotient) techniques. GIRIOT estimates the intra-regional input coefficients by employing the generalised RSP (Regional Supply Percentage) and uses column-only as well as row-only approaches. The two approaches are then reconciled. GIRIOT also estimates the interregional input coefficients using the inter-island transport pattern of commodity groups for primary and secondary sectors and the pattern of population distribution for the nonzero imports of service sectors.

Two other advantages of the GIRIOT procedure are important. First, it can provide the facilities for generating single-region input-output tables. Second, it can be expanded to generate inter-national input-output tables (GINIOT) if the appropriate data are available.

Inter-regional input-output tables were constructed for this research using 1990 data from Indonesia. Plausible validity testing showed that the GIRIOT procedure could produce inter-regional input-output tables that satisfactorily reflect the spatial characteristics of the Indonesian economy, provided sufficient resources are available. The results also showed the stability of multipliers when all observed values of total multipliers for output, income and employment fell between the lower and upper boundary of the 95 per cent confidence interval. Sensitivity analysis also showed that less than 15 per cent of direct coefficients are important for creating total output, income and employment multipliers.

Households proved to be the most critical sectors, confirming the suggestion that household sectors may be the most important feature of regional economies. The manufacturing sector in all regions was the next critical sectors for generating output, income and employment multipliers. Transport and communication sectors were crucial for Sumatra, Java and Kalimantan islands. Trade sectors in Sumatra, Java, Nusa Tenggara and Other Islands were also critical. The financial sector is critical only for the Sumatra and Java islands. Except for Kalimantan island, no agricultural sectors are identified as critical sectors.

The model proved useful for analysing the spatial structure of the island economy of Indonesia as well as the impact of policy simulations. The results of the procedure are claimed to represent reality within acceptable professional norms. This thesis offers five further contributions: (1) an evaluation of the current methods used to construct single-region and inter-regional input-output tables in Indonesia; (2) the development of an appropriate hybrid procedure to construct both single-region and inter-regional input-output tables for an island economy in a developing country; (3) an application of the inter-regional input-output model to analyse the spatial structure of Indonesia’s island economy; (4) developmental methods of validating inter-regional input-output tables; and (5) an analysis of the sectoral, spatial and spatial-sector significance of an island economy.

The research reported in this thesis had two main objectives. The first objective was to assess the relevance, feasibility and practicality of modelling the spatial structure of a developing island economy using a hybrid procedure to generate inter-regional input-output tables. The second objective was to apply the procedure to study the spatial structure of the island economy of Indonesia.

The first objective was achieved in four steps. Step 1: a review of the literature on hybrid techniques for constructing inter-regional input-output tables; Step 2: an examination of the regional characteristics of island economies and assessing their implications for developing a hybrid procedure; Step 3: a review of the current practices for generating of single-region and multi-region input-output tables in Indonesia; Step 4: an assessment of the potential of applying the hybrid technique for constructing interregional input-output tables in Indonesia. As a result a new hybrid procedure for generating inter-regional input-output tables (GIRIOT) for an island economy in a developing country has been developed. This procedure is the most significant contribution of the research.

GIRIOT combines and modifies the GRIT II and GRIT III procedures developed at The University of Queensland. At least three aspects of the new procedure are different to GRIT; the hybrid procedure designed for a mainland economy in a developed country. GRIT uses national technical coefficients. GIRIOT adjusts regional technology differences since in an island country like Indonesia, regional diversity exists in its ecology, economy and culture. GRIT uses LQ (Location Quotient) techniques. GIRIOT estimates the intra-regional input coefficients by employing the generalised RSP (Regional Supply Percentage) and uses column-only as well as row-only approaches. The two approaches are then reconciled. GIRIOT also estimates the interregional input coefficients using the inter-island transport pattern of commodity groups for primary and secondary sectors and the pattern of population distribution for the nonzero imports of service sectors.

Two other advantages of the GIRIOT procedure are important. First, it can provide the facilities for generating single-region input-output tables. Second, it can be expanded to generate inter-national input-output tables (GINIOT) if the appropriate data are available.

Inter-regional input-output tables were constructed for this research using 1990 data from Indonesia. Plausible validity testing showed that the GIRIOT procedure could produce inter-regional input-output tables that satisfactorily reflect the spatial characteristics of the Indonesian economy, provided sufficient resources are available. The results also showed the stability of multipliers when all observed values of total multipliers for output, income and employment fell between the lower and upper boundary of the 95 per cent confidence interval. Sensitivity analysis also showed that less than 15 per cent of direct coefficients are important for creating total output, income and employment multipliers.

Households proved to be the most critical sectors, confirming the suggestion that household sectors may be the most important feature of regional economies. The manufacturing sector in all regions was the next critical sectors for generating output, income and employment multipliers. Transport and communication sectors were crucial for Sumatra, Java and Kalimantan islands. Trade sectors in Sumatra, Java, Nusa Tenggara and Other Islands were also critical. The financial sector is critical only for the Sumatra and Java islands. Except for Kalimantan island, no agricultural sectors are identified as critical sectors.

The model proved useful for analysing the spatial structure of the island economy of Indonesia as well as the impact of policy simulations. The results of the procedure are claimed to represent reality within acceptable professional norms. This thesis offers five further contributions: (1) an evaluation of the current methods used to construct single-region and inter-regional input-output tables in Indonesia; (2) the development of an appropriate hybrid procedure to construct both single-region and inter-regional input-output tables for an island economy in a developing country; (3) an application of the inter-regional input-output model to analyse the spatial structure of Indonesia’s island economy; (4) developmental methods of validating inter-regional input-output tables; and (5) an analysis of the sectoral, spatial and spatial-sector significance of an island economy.

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FLUKTUASI NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP MATA UANG
ASEAN dan FAKTOR-FAKTOR EKONOMI YANG
MEMPENGARUHINYA

Muchdie, Muchdie

This paper examines the exchange rate fluctuation of ASEAN currencies toward Indonesian Rupiah for the period of January to December 2001. The results shows that Brunei’s Dollar and Singapore’s Dollar have the same pattern, While Malaysian Ringgitand Myanmar Kyat show very similar pattern as welt as those showed by Thailand Bath and Philipine Peso. This paper also examines economis factors that determine the ASEAN moneys’s exchange rate, namely balance of payment, interest rate and inflation rate. The result shows that correlation between those factors are statistically significant and comply with the theory of exchange rate reffered in the literatures.

This paper examines the exchange rate fluctuation of ASEAN currencies toward Indonesian Rupiah for the period of January to December 2001. The results shows that Brunei’s Dollar and Singapore’s Dollar have the same pattern, While Malaysian Ringgitand Myanmar Kyat show very similar pattern as welt as those showed by Thailand Bath and Philipine Peso. This paper also examines economis factors that determine the ASEAN moneys’s exchange rate, namely balance of payment, interest rate and inflation rate. The result shows that correlation between those factors are statistically significant and comply with the theory of exchange rate reffered in the literatures.

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MODEL DAMPAK LOKAL UNTUK MENGHITUNG
MANFAAT INDUSTRI PARIWISATA TERHADAP
PEREKONOMIAN WILAYAH

Muchdie, Muchdie

Manfaat utama yang diharapkan masyarakat dari industri pariwisata adalah sumbangannya yang sigrtifikan bagi per-ekonomian lokai, yaitu meningkatnya pendapatan dan terbukanya kesempatan kerja. Pemilik hotel, misalnya, akan mem-peroleh manfaat langsung dari belanja wisatawan. Ketika mereka membayar upah kepada pekerjanya dan kemudian para pekerja membelanjakan secara lokal gaji yang diterimanya, maka masyarakat akan menikmati manfaat industri pariwisata.

Manfaat utama yang diharapkan masyarakat dari industri pariwisata adalah sumbangannya yang sigrtifikan bagi per-ekonomian lokai, yaitu meningkatnya pendapatan dan terbukanya kesempatan kerja. Pemilik hotel, misalnya, akan mem-peroleh manfaat langsung dari belanja wisatawan. Ketika mereka membayar upah kepada pekerjanya dan kemudian para pekerja membelanjakan secara lokal gaji yang diterimanya, maka masyarakat akan menikmati manfaat industri pariwisata.

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STRUKTUR RUANG PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA: ANALISIS MODEL INPUT-OUTPUT ANTAR DAERAH

Muchdie, Muchdie

This paper discusses the spatial structure of the Indonesian economy using an inter-island input-output model. The model is constructed applying a new hybrid procedure designed specifically for an island economy. The spatial structure is analyzes by presenting spatial mul tipliers and flow-on effects as well as the index of spill-over and feed-back, effects.

This paper discusses the spatial structure of the Indonesian economy using an inter-island input-output model. The model is constructed applying a new hybrid procedure designed specifically for an island economy. The spatial structure is analyzes by presenting spatial mul tipliers and flow-on effects as well as the index of spill-over and feed-back, effects.

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MODEL INPUT-OUTPUT SEBAGAI METODE ANALISIS PERENCANAAN EKONOMI WILAYAH

Muchdie, Muchdie

Paper ini membahas model input-ouput, khususnya model-model berdimensi wilayah, sebagai metoda analisis dan perencanaan ekonomi wilayah. Pertama-tama, kerangka dasar model dijelaskan dan dilengkapi dengan beberapa contoh tabel transaksi. Model-model yang berdimensi wilayah kemudian dibahas dan dilanjutkan dengan membahas berbagai kegunaan model, baik kegunaan deskriptif maupun kegunaan analitik, khususnya untuk keperluan perencanaan ekonomi wilayah. Akhirnya, beberapa kelemahan model juga dikemukakan.

Paper ini membahas model input-ouput, khususnya model-model berdimensi wilayah, sebagai metoda analisis dan perencanaan ekonomi wilayah. Pertama-tama, kerangka dasar model dijelaskan dan dilengkapi dengan beberapa contoh tabel transaksi. Model-model yang berdimensi wilayah kemudian dibahas dan dilanjutkan dengan membahas berbagai kegunaan model, baik kegunaan deskriptif maupun kegunaan analitik, khususnya untuk keperluan perencanaan ekonomi wilayah. Akhirnya, beberapa kelemahan model juga dikemukakan.

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THE EXISTENCE OF PHILIPS CURVE IN THE LONG RUN: SOME EVIDENCES FROM AUSTRALIAN, SOUTH KOREAN AND INDONESIAN ECONOMIES

Muchdie, Muchdie

This paper provides evidences on the existence of the Philips curve in an economy.The Philips curve depicted a negative correlation between the rate of inflation and unemployment rate. This dilemma has been a big problem faced by any government. Inflation cannot be eliminated without raising unemployment, at least for some time and moderate unemployment cannot be cut sharply without the risk of raising inflation. It was empirically evidence that this curve exist in the short-run. In the short run, inflation cannot be reduced without creating a recession. In the long run, many research proved that there was not any trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Data from Australia (1980-2015), South Korea (1980-2015) and Indonesia (1995-2015) have been used to provide evidence on the existence of Philips curve in the long run, using regression analysis. The results provide evidences that there were negative correlation between the rate of inflation and unemployment rate.It means that in the long run, the Philips curve do exist in the economy, even though the relationship between them was not statistically significant.

This paper provides evidences on the existence of the Philips curve in an economy.The Philips curve depicted a negative correlation between the rate of inflation and unemployment rate. This dilemma has been a big problem faced by any government. Inflation cannot be eliminated without raising unemployment, at least for some time and moderate unemployment cannot be cut sharply without the risk of raising inflation. It was empirically evidence that this curve exist in the short-run. In the short run, inflation cannot be reduced without creating a recession. In the long run, many research proved that there was not any trade-off between inflation and unemployment. Data from Australia (1980-2015), South Korea (1980-2015) and Indonesia (1995-2015) have been used to provide evidence on the existence of Philips curve in the long run, using regression analysis. The results provide evidences that there were negative correlation between the rate of inflation and unemployment rate.It means that in the long run, the Philips curve do exist in the economy, even though the relationship between them was not statistically significant.

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